New Missile Attack on Erbil Highlights The Continual Rise of Tension Between the United States and Iran

The conflict between the United States and Iran has heightened for several years. Iranian forces have initiated and continued attacks by armed suicide drones and missile attacks on US bases purportedly.

Much of the aggression is attributed to the killing of Qasem Soleimani, a high-ranking Iranian general of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Soleimani was killed by US forces in an airstrike. Following the death of the Iranian general, multiple attacks on US bases, purportedly by Iranian forces, were initiated and continued over the years. [i]

In addition, several instances of aggression towards the US and allies by Iranians have been noted. However, many cannot be directly traced to Iranian forces despite suspicion of their involvement. [ii]

Despite indicators pointing to Iranian involvement in the attacks on military and civilian bases across Iraq, Iranian officials denounce such involvement. They vehemently assert they have no involvement in the incidents. With tensions continuing to rise, questions exist as to whether Iranian aggression will ever extend beyond the cat-and-mouse games previously noted. [iii]

Iranian Aggression Noted on Several Occasions

The back and forth between the US and Iran were also evidenced in the 2019 attack on the US Embassy. Hundreds of Iranian militants penetrated the Green Zone but did not breach the embassy building itself. The aggression came in response to a Dec. 29 US strike that killed dozens of Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) members and wounded others. The PMU consisting of nearly 50 united militias, calls for a national mobilization to stand against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). [viii]

Iranians claim to have been retaliating against the US strike. Still, the US rebuts that their strike was justified. It materialized in response to numerous Katyusha rocket attacks against US bases situated in Iraq. One in northern Kirkuk killed a contractor and wounded several others. [viii]

Over time, Iranian forces have continually exhibited aggressive behavior towards the US and its allies. An example of such aggressive behavior was displayed when eleven Iranian attack vessels conducted harassing and dangerous approaches. This occurred against a formation of US Navy and Coast Guard ships in the northern Persian Gulf.

The US ships were performing joint integration operations in the international waters of the North Arabian Gulf. US spokespersons advised that radio warnings and additional efforts were attempted to deter the boats from moving closer to the US ship. [iv]

The Coast Guard and Navy issued bridge-to-bridge radio warnings, five short blasts from the ships’ horns, and other methods but received no response for an hour. Finally, the vessels responded, increasing the distance between the US and Iranian ships. Despite evidence indicating Iranian affiliation, the commander of US forces refused to openly blame the Iranian government for the events. [v]

In a separate incident of Iranian aggression, thirteen Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) fast attack boats rapidly approached a US warship escorting the submarine USS Georgia. The fast attack boats advanced at high speed, disregarding the ship’s horn, radio transmissions, and additional communication methods.

As the attack boats gained mileage, the US warship was forced to fire an estimated thirty warning shots from a 50-caliber machine gun. It took two rounds of warning shots to cause the attack boats to retreat. This and several other incidents resulting in no casualties would be just the beginning of an ongoing battle. [vi]

An additional incident involved the strike on Mercer Street, an oil tanker, by armed drones off Oman’s coast. The suspected Iranian aggression led to two casualties. The US Secretary of State spoke on the issue suggesting action would occur if necessary. As time has passed, attacks on military bases have continued, and acts of aggression by Iranian forces have seemingly increased in incidence. [vii]

More recently, there was yet another rocket attack, with several launched at Erbil’s oil refinery, resulting in a fire. Although the attack was not directed toward the US, it clearly indicated Iran’s ostensibly increasing willingness to aggress. Though there were no US casualties, some labeled this recent attack on Erbil an effort to warn the US and its allies. Tensions continue to fluctuate, especially amidst the discussions of nuclear deals, a dead horse to some. [ix]

With this in mind, we cannot help but ponder the reasoning behind the continued conflict. Will what seems to be a slow creeping escalation eventually lead to further and more detrimental action by Iranian forces? The Congressional Research Service cited in one report that military action is not likely to be the appropriate response to resolve the Iranian dispute. The report references the need to change within the Iranian regime and offers several illustrative examples of policy options as alternatives. [x]

One illustrative example provided is taking action against Iranian proxies or allies. It is suggested that the Administration has the option to take action against Iran-backed militias in the form of air or ground operations or even cyber warfare. Unfortunately, the report continues to detail that such attacks will likely weaken the ability to resolve the conflict ever. Another example is the potential for a blockade staged in the Strait of Hormuz, cinching off a major waterway vital for Iranian commerce. As with the previous example, the report details that international law considers a blockade an act of war. [xi]

Keeping this at the forefront, it is difficult to imagine a comprehensive plan to rebuild what has already been crumbling for decades. In attempting to address the recent Iranian attacks, any decision, whether policy-based or carried out through military presence, is sure to have lasting ramifications. Reviewing Iran’s slow escalation of aggression indicates a greater need to further address a conflict deeply rooted in decades-ago interactions.

Watching as Russia is turned upside down by conflict at its own doorstep should lead to a more careful examination of potential threats. Such analysis should also include the US’ options for responding to such threats.

References

[i] ABC News, US airstrike kills Iranian General Qassem Soleimani | Nightline, (2020), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CZIZSE8xOk

[ii] Blaise Misztal, Charles Perkins, Jonathan Ruhe, Ari Cicurel, Iranian Naval Provocations, (August 2021), https://jinsa.org/jinsa_report/iranian-naval-provocations/

[iii] Farzin Nadimi, Iran Gets Aggressive in the Northern Gulf Following US Military Exercises, (Apr. 21, 2020), https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/iran-gets-aggressive-northern-gulf-following-us-military-exercises

[iv] Associated Press, Iran rejects US claim that speedboats sparked incident, (May 11, 2021), https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-rejects-us-claim-that-speedboats-sparked-incident/

[v] Id.

[vi] Megan Eckstein, Iranian Attack Boats Harass US Navy, Coast Guard Vessels in Persian Gulf, (Apr. 15, 2020), https://news.usni.org/2020/04/15/video-iranian-attack-boats-harass-u-s-navy-coast-guard-vessels-in-persian-gulf

[vii] Jennifer Hansler, Ellie Kaufman, Pentagon investigative team says Iran was behind attack on Mercer Street tanker, (Aug. 6, 2021), https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/06/politics/us-navy-mercer-street-investigation/index.html

[viii] Ali Mamouri, Pro-Iranian militias behind US Embassy attack in Baghdad, (Dec. 31, 2019), https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2019/12/iraq-protesters-storm-us-embassy-baghdad.html

[ix] Amina Ismail, John Davison, Iran attacks Iraq’s Erbil with missiles in warning to US, allies, (Mar. 13, 2022), https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/multiple-rockets-fall-erbil-northern-iraq-state-media-2022-03-12/

[x] Congressional Research Service, U.S.-Iran Conflict and Implications for US Policy, (May 8, 2020), https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R45795.html

[xi] Id.