Now constantly pleading to leave the war early

Russia recently announced Putin’s signing of a decree “increasing the number of army personnel by 137,000.” This would bring the total number of Russian personnel to 1.15 million. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) commented that this indicates “Putin is unlikely to order a mass mobilization.” The ISW further asserts that Russia is unlikely to generate additional decreed forces. The ISW points to the Russian army’s pre-invasion numbers of roughly 850,000, stating, “The Russian military has not historically met its end-strength targets.” [i]

This decree follows Moscow’s late July incident when “more than 200 members of the Russian Federation’s (RF) 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade, en masse, wrote letters of resignation.” Despite Kremlin sources painting a picture that “the Special Military Operation in Ukraine is going to plan,” phone calls home by soldiers and other non-Kremlin sources contradict these claims. [ii]

Most recently, Danil Frolkin, in an Aug. 19 interview, shared that “his unit suffered around 40% casualties and that four out of five survivors submitted resignation letters. Commanders simply refused to accept them.” Frolkin states that he wrote several statements indicating his refusal to fight but that,

They won’t end my contract and they won’t let me go home. [iii]

‘Grieving Mother’ Memorial in Russia.Photo by GAlexandrova/Wikimedia Commons

The Humanitarian group Soldiers’ Mothers have logged hundreds of letters between Rusian troops and their relatives “begging the army chain of command [to] allow soldiers like Frolkin to resign per the terms of his contract with the military.” This news follows a Ural city’s announcement of forming a 160-man volunteer tank battalion. Reports indicated that by July’s end, merely 15 men had volunteered. [iv]

The reluctance of individuals to join may also relate to reports that “Russia is running low on missiles after six months of strikes.” Intelligence reports indicate that only 45% of Russia’s missiles remain. Vadym Skibitskyi, a member of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Intelligence Directory, estimates for some armaments, Russia may only have 20% remaining, as shown below.

Due to sanctions against Russia, it is believed that building additional land attack missiles will be challenging to accomplish. The sanctions have impacted Russia’s ability to “produce higher-tech weapons” because many weapons require western electronics, which Russia has been sanctioned from accessing. [v]

References

[i] Karolina Hird, Layne Philipson, George Barros, Frederick w. Kagan, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, (Aug. 25, 2022)

[ii] Stefan Korshak, Kremlin scraping bottom of the barrel for men to fight in Ukraine, (Aug. 27, 2022)

[iii] Id.

[iv] Id.

[v] Stetson Payne, Tyler Rogoway, Ukraine Situation Report: Kyiv Claims Russia Is Running Low On Missiles, (Aug. 27, 2022)